Friday, March 30, 2007

NUCLEAR ATTACKS COMING! First time we've read that this week. Run along now.

Your friendly neighborhood GlobalSecurity.Org Senior Fellow gets a couple notifications a week on how the United States is unprepared for nuclear attack.

This blog tracked the phenom last year in a feature called The Daily Fallout. Eventually, I ran out of cool mushroom cloud photos and shelved it.

But it never stops.

There are always a couple of scientists, a handful of politicians, a gaggle of anti-terror experts and a squad of journalists to write about it.

No one is paying attention! There's not enough news on the subject! No one has made a report like ours!

Nonsense. If anything, we're way overinvested in alarm-bell ringers.

The latest scholarly boneheads in this charade are from at the Center for Mass Destruction Defense, located in the School of Pharmacy at the University of Georgia.

"Vulnerability of populations and the urban health care systems to nuclear weapon attack – examples from four American cities" is the title of the paper you probably don't have to read.

The scientists explain how the detonations and damage were modelled.

"The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has expended considerable effort to develop models for calculating mass casualties from a nuclear detonation," the authors write.

And then, off the rails.

"In order to specifically evaluate urban medical systems vulnerability we are employing the PC based Consequence Assessment Tool Set (CATS) v6, with ESRI's ArcGIS9 [14], CATS/JACE (Joint Assessment of Catastrophic Events) v5 with ESRI's ArcView 3.3, Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V4.04SP3 [15], as well as custom GIS and database software applications. HPAC does excellent Chemical Biological and Nuclear (CBN) modeling, although output could provide more flexibility. Additionally, results can be exported to CATS for further analysis and display."

No thanks. Been there, done that. Is there a federal agency or think tank that hasn't modelled the same and sent out news of it? DD doesn't think so. How 'bout some more of that, by the shovelful!

The conclusions: Nuclear explosions -- bad. Medical services -- they'll fail! Half a megaton blast on NYC. Diagram included. Really, really, really, really bad.

"Among the consequences of this outcome would be the probable loss of command-and-control, mass casualties that will have to be treated in an unorganized response by hospitals on the periphery, as well as other expected chaotic outcomes from inadequate administration in a crisis," it is written.

Call the President! Nothing less than a serious and concerted educational and indoctrinational effort to elucidate the danger is needed right now! Stop blowing it off, damn it.

Or just look at DD blog's graphics, collected from various places.

Baker-sized shot -- 12-20 kt -- on DC. Ouch.

Baker shot over Manhattan. Help!

Mike-scale blast -- 10 megatons -- obliterating five boroughs. That's a really big "Oof!"

Not enough mushroom clouds?! Heck, I got 'em coming out the ears and on top of the head -- here, here, here, here and here.


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